Tropical Storm Milton could hit Florida as a major hurricane midweek

People across Florida were given notice Sunday that Milton, for now just a tropical storm off the coast of Mexico, could intensify rapidly into a major hurricane before slamming midweek into the storm-ravaged Gulf Coast.

“There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week,” senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake advised on Sunday morning.

While forecast models vary widely, the most likely path suggests Milton could make landfall Wednesday just north of Tampa Bay and remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida into the Atlantic Ocean, largely sparing other southeastern states ravaged by Hurricane Helene, which caused catastrophic damage from Florida into the Appalachian mountains and a death toll that rose Sunday to 230 people.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that while it remains to be seen just where Milton will strike, it’s clear that Florida is going to be hit hard — “I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have major impacts at this point.”

“You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place,” the governor said. “If you’re on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you’ll be asked to leave.”

DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration Sunday to 51 counties, and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruption, making sure they have a week’s worth of food and water and are ready to hit the road. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, meanwhile, coordinated with the governor and briefed President Joe Biden Sunday on how it staged lifesaving resources to be ready.

“I highly encourage you to evacuate” if you’re in an evacuation zone, said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “We are preparing … for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma.”

The state has prepared emergency fuel sources and EV charging stations along evacuation routes, and “identified every possible location that can possibly house someone along those routes,” Guthrie said. People who live in homes built after Florida strengthened its codes in 2004, who don’t depend on constant electricity and who aren’t in evacuation zones, should probably avoid the roads, he said.

As many as 4,000 National Guard troops are helping state crews to remove debris, DeSantis said, and he directed that Florida crews dispatched to North Carolina in Helene’s aftermath return to the state to prepare for Milton.

“All available state assets … are being marshaled to help remove debris,” DeSantis said. “We’re going 24-7 … it’s all hands on deck.”

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell defended her agency’s response to the destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene after Republicans’ false claims, amplified by former President Donald Trump, created a frenzy of misinformation across devastated communities.

“This kind of rhetoric is not helpful to people and it’s really a shame we’re putting politics ahead of helping people,” Criswell told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. It’s created fear and mistrust among residents against the thousands of FEMA employees and volunteers on the ground across the southeast, she said.

Despite this, Criswell said the agency is already preparing for Milton, well before it’s clear exactly where it will move across the Florida peninsula this week. “We’re working with the state there to understand what their requirements are going to be, so we can have those in place before it makes landfall,” she said.

Tropical Storm Milton’s centre was about 860 miles (1,385 kilometres) west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, early Sunday, heading east at five mph (seven km/h) with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

The hurricane centre said Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the system’s progress. Heavy rainfall was expected Sunday ahead of the storm itself, and will likely then combine with Milton’s rainfall to flood waterways and streets in Florida, where forecasters said up to a foot (30 centimetres) of rain could fall in places through Wednesday night.

Meanwhile in the open Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk diminished to a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday, with top winds of 105 mph (165 km/h), sending large swells and “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” to Bermuda and northward along the U.S. and Canadian coasts, the centre said. Hurricane Leslie was also moving over the Atlantic Ocean, well away from land, with top winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).